It appears as if Charlie Crist may run as an independent in Florida's US Senatorial election this year. There was recently a bill regarding teacher pay that passed through the Florida senate. Without going too far into detail (in large part because I don't know a great deal about it), the bill dealt with a favorite topic among Florida Republicans: education reform. At the same time, Democrats are somewhat ambivalent about education reform and teachers unions were fiercely opposed. Having been badly trailing Marco Rubio in the Republican primary, Crist has been having to hew to the right over the past few months even though he was elected as a moderate. However... Governor Crist vetoed the bill a few days ago.
If Governor Crist was planning on losing the Republican primary, that was the absolute right move. Otherwise, it indicates he's returning to his moderate roots. Florida Governors are limited to two four year terms and from that point the only place to go is into the federal government. Crist has been involved in politics for a very long time. He's also always kind of struck me as a political opportunist (though to be fair I don't know as much about him as I probably should). Given the situation facing his career and since polls show him eeking out a narrow victory in a three way race, it only seems logical for him to run as an independent. I'm waiting with fingers crossed.
Even if a Senator Crist was to the right of my personal ideology, I think he would be great for the country and spectacular for Florida. Charlie Crist has the second highest approval ratings for any Florida governor on record (though they only go back to Graham) and is well liked by both Democrats and Republicans. Though it may sound strange to most, in actuality Florida is evenly divided in terms of voter registration. The reason state politics are controlled by Republicans is basically because they outplayed the Democrats in the 90s and then gamed the system (there's a little more to it than that). I'm a little thin when it comes to domestic politics, but it seems to me that in this environment if Charlie Crist won a senate seat it would be thanks to both moderate Republicans and to Democrats who have no idea who Kendrick Meek is. He's already on the bad side of Jeb Bush because of the veto and running as an independent would seal his fate within the Republican party. So Crist would be beholden to moderates and through this, to Florida's best interests. He would have to pay close attention to what Floridians want and work very hard to make sure we keep loving him.
An outcome like that is exactly what the country needs. The Republican party is throwing in their lot with fanatics and garnering favor with old white people. If the tea-baggers succeed, it will result in a hopelessly deadlocked government for a little bit, and then as white people progressively become less of a majority the Democrats will come back, smash the Republicans into itty-bitty pieces and we'll have only one functioning party until the GOP can get their act together. Given that the Republicans should have been getting their act together since the 2006 midterms and have instead been reheating left over Reagan lasagna, we'd probably be stuck with one party for quite a while.
But it seems to me that Charlie Crist would have a difficult time caucusing with either party. The Republicans would hate him. Throwing his support their way isn't going to help get the GOP machinery of Florida on his side for the next election. Going too far to the right would alienate the South Florida Democrats that helped to put him in office anyway. But he would have to be careful about associating too closely with President Obama. Republicans make up half of Florida and part of the reason why they control the state is that Florida Republicans are more excitable than Florida Democrats. While this would make Senator Crist's incumbency tenuous, it would also make it remarkable. Of the two independents in the Senate both currently caucus with the Democrats. Of course, Lieberman does have a tendency to do his own thing, but his own thing has already been laid out and the guy's been in the Senate so long he doesn't really have to worry about his constituents anymore. Crist on the other hand, would be a legitimately up for grabs vote in the Senate. A true independent would be a breath of fresh air. At the very least it would provide some respite from the insanity we've been seeing for so long. At best it will show us a path forward.
What Crist will really be great for is Florida. The Democrats will want his vote badly. At the same time, it will have to be apparent as to exactly how careful he has to be about straying too far from his conservative roots. These two things equal: bank. He will be in a prime position to lavish Florida with federal riches. The Democrats will probably be happy to oblige too. If he can bring home the bacon, Florida Republicans will be more forgiving of him straying from their party line, allowing him to worry about Florida Democrats and stray toward their party line. Given that Crist is so experienced in politics, he'll most likely be able to capitalize on this.
All of that is very dependent on where he gets his support. It's my opinion that in the end politicians are responsible to the voters. However, you'd have a hard time finding someone who would disagree with the statement that there's a lot more to it than just that. Getting and retaining support from the people that count is exceedingly important. If he can still get some big time Republicans to back him (doesn't seem likely) he might end up caucusing with the Republicans. If he gets more Democratic groups to back him it would go the other way. It seems like he's still figuring that one out himself right now, so there's no way to tell.
And if all of this comes to naught? Say he loses after one term in office. In that case we'll have dodged a tea-bagger incumbent. Say he loses this November. Well, Meek would probably have gotten destroyed by Rubio anyway. Florida Republicans are more enthusiastic than Florida Democrats in general, and Republicans are more enthused than Democrats nationally at the moment. Not good for a Democratic candidate with terrible name recognition. But a three way race will be pretty cool. There will be a lot of attention on the race and a lot of money pumped into the state in the process. So even if he falls flat on his face, at the bare minimum Charlie is bound to give us a good show.
If Governor Crist was planning on losing the Republican primary, that was the absolute right move. Otherwise, it indicates he's returning to his moderate roots. Florida Governors are limited to two four year terms and from that point the only place to go is into the federal government. Crist has been involved in politics for a very long time. He's also always kind of struck me as a political opportunist (though to be fair I don't know as much about him as I probably should). Given the situation facing his career and since polls show him eeking out a narrow victory in a three way race, it only seems logical for him to run as an independent. I'm waiting with fingers crossed.
Even if a Senator Crist was to the right of my personal ideology, I think he would be great for the country and spectacular for Florida. Charlie Crist has the second highest approval ratings for any Florida governor on record (though they only go back to Graham) and is well liked by both Democrats and Republicans. Though it may sound strange to most, in actuality Florida is evenly divided in terms of voter registration. The reason state politics are controlled by Republicans is basically because they outplayed the Democrats in the 90s and then gamed the system (there's a little more to it than that). I'm a little thin when it comes to domestic politics, but it seems to me that in this environment if Charlie Crist won a senate seat it would be thanks to both moderate Republicans and to Democrats who have no idea who Kendrick Meek is. He's already on the bad side of Jeb Bush because of the veto and running as an independent would seal his fate within the Republican party. So Crist would be beholden to moderates and through this, to Florida's best interests. He would have to pay close attention to what Floridians want and work very hard to make sure we keep loving him.
An outcome like that is exactly what the country needs. The Republican party is throwing in their lot with fanatics and garnering favor with old white people. If the tea-baggers succeed, it will result in a hopelessly deadlocked government for a little bit, and then as white people progressively become less of a majority the Democrats will come back, smash the Republicans into itty-bitty pieces and we'll have only one functioning party until the GOP can get their act together. Given that the Republicans should have been getting their act together since the 2006 midterms and have instead been reheating left over Reagan lasagna, we'd probably be stuck with one party for quite a while.
But it seems to me that Charlie Crist would have a difficult time caucusing with either party. The Republicans would hate him. Throwing his support their way isn't going to help get the GOP machinery of Florida on his side for the next election. Going too far to the right would alienate the South Florida Democrats that helped to put him in office anyway. But he would have to be careful about associating too closely with President Obama. Republicans make up half of Florida and part of the reason why they control the state is that Florida Republicans are more excitable than Florida Democrats. While this would make Senator Crist's incumbency tenuous, it would also make it remarkable. Of the two independents in the Senate both currently caucus with the Democrats. Of course, Lieberman does have a tendency to do his own thing, but his own thing has already been laid out and the guy's been in the Senate so long he doesn't really have to worry about his constituents anymore. Crist on the other hand, would be a legitimately up for grabs vote in the Senate. A true independent would be a breath of fresh air. At the very least it would provide some respite from the insanity we've been seeing for so long. At best it will show us a path forward.
What Crist will really be great for is Florida. The Democrats will want his vote badly. At the same time, it will have to be apparent as to exactly how careful he has to be about straying too far from his conservative roots. These two things equal: bank. He will be in a prime position to lavish Florida with federal riches. The Democrats will probably be happy to oblige too. If he can bring home the bacon, Florida Republicans will be more forgiving of him straying from their party line, allowing him to worry about Florida Democrats and stray toward their party line. Given that Crist is so experienced in politics, he'll most likely be able to capitalize on this.
All of that is very dependent on where he gets his support. It's my opinion that in the end politicians are responsible to the voters. However, you'd have a hard time finding someone who would disagree with the statement that there's a lot more to it than just that. Getting and retaining support from the people that count is exceedingly important. If he can still get some big time Republicans to back him (doesn't seem likely) he might end up caucusing with the Republicans. If he gets more Democratic groups to back him it would go the other way. It seems like he's still figuring that one out himself right now, so there's no way to tell.
And if all of this comes to naught? Say he loses after one term in office. In that case we'll have dodged a tea-bagger incumbent. Say he loses this November. Well, Meek would probably have gotten destroyed by Rubio anyway. Florida Republicans are more enthusiastic than Florida Democrats in general, and Republicans are more enthused than Democrats nationally at the moment. Not good for a Democratic candidate with terrible name recognition. But a three way race will be pretty cool. There will be a lot of attention on the race and a lot of money pumped into the state in the process. So even if he falls flat on his face, at the bare minimum Charlie is bound to give us a good show.
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