There is a fundamental misunderstanding of China in the west. The article I've posted a link to, though actually addressing the misunderstanding, is indicative of it in that the title actually flies. My last post was speaking to the major accomplishment of the growth that China is seeing. But for the leaders of this country, doing their very best could possibly be only just enough. Consider this, what if more than half of the United States lived in abject poverty? Don't quote me on this figure, but it's something like 700 million Chinese are peasant farmers. Even in the first tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai you don't need to look very hard to find living conditions that we would consider squalor. I've seen poverty in the US, it just doesn't compare to lower class here. In a second tier city like Dalian it still permeates almost every area of town. The magnificent skyscrapers go up in the middle of this. That's the base level they're working from.
Beyond the issue of a comparatively low per capita GDP there are endless other issues for them to tackle. Though incredibly illegal, corruption is endemic, sapping productivity and making governance difficult. There are no social welfare systems to speak of. Upon telling my class of teachers that Europe has free health care I literally saw a jaw drop. Medicare would be a step up. The pollution here is terrible, you literally cannot see the sky most days in Beijing. If there's a good rain the sky clears up for two or three days, but generally speaking it's kind of a yellowish gray. Once you start talking about the third tier cities the smog is choking. Most bodies of water you find are covered in algae, which apparently was not the case originally and due to pollution. People see it as acceptable to throw their trash wherever so the streets are strewn with garbage. The leadership of the country must be aware that at some point their is going to be one hell of a hangover from this regulation free business environment. For the past year or so economists have been chattering away about the property bubble here and how it dwarfs ours of 2008. They've begun test policies in a few different areas, but there are still skyscrapers being built on either side of the building I live in. The new big worry is that after the most recent ten year census it turns out that the one child policy has resulted in a fertility rate well below the optimal level. The result is that any social welfare system put in place will have to be designed to stand the impending shock that Japan's very developed, efficient and technology intensive society is having difficultly enduring.
All of these pitfalls are set against the backdrop of official paranoia. The CCP is still in power because they actively learned lessons from the fall of the USSR and in lieu of ideology have made staying in power their raison d'etre. Now they're seeing 1989 all over again in the middle east. The image most Americans seem to have of Chinese leaders is of them kicking back in an easy chair, smoking a Cuban cigar and laughing as they surpass America. Far from it! After spending collectively a half year in mainland China MY image of Hu Jintao is one of a pepto bismol guzzling man who lives in a political environment fraught with imminent dangers. Under George Bush the American economy tanked. The Republicans lost power. If the Chinese economy tanks there could very well be a revolution. And if the economy doesn't tank? Well then there's still a whole host of problems which might still be catastrophic even if handled properly.
Here's what Americans need to understand about China that I've learned or have learned to be extremely important factors since being here:
1. China as a whole only started working towards modernization ~15 years ago.
2. Their problems are greater in number and much bigger than ours.
3. The ramifications for them not fixing their problems are more serious and because of this they will not yield to any demands easily.
4. Their economy is still less than 1/3 the size of ours.
5. Growth like they have here requires a standard of living we would not be willing to endure.
6. We are a country of laws and not of men, this is a country of men and not of laws. The institutional stability we enjoy has not yet been engrained in China. The result is that even if we hammer out agreements with China, they might not be able to implement them.
7. China is every bit as inward focused and deaf to other cultures as the most backwater parts of America. You would be amazed at the history they're not aware of.
8. In America the mental image of China often evokes South Korea or Japan. This is completely 100% inaccurate.
Beyond the issue of a comparatively low per capita GDP there are endless other issues for them to tackle. Though incredibly illegal, corruption is endemic, sapping productivity and making governance difficult. There are no social welfare systems to speak of. Upon telling my class of teachers that Europe has free health care I literally saw a jaw drop. Medicare would be a step up. The pollution here is terrible, you literally cannot see the sky most days in Beijing. If there's a good rain the sky clears up for two or three days, but generally speaking it's kind of a yellowish gray. Once you start talking about the third tier cities the smog is choking. Most bodies of water you find are covered in algae, which apparently was not the case originally and due to pollution. People see it as acceptable to throw their trash wherever so the streets are strewn with garbage. The leadership of the country must be aware that at some point their is going to be one hell of a hangover from this regulation free business environment. For the past year or so economists have been chattering away about the property bubble here and how it dwarfs ours of 2008. They've begun test policies in a few different areas, but there are still skyscrapers being built on either side of the building I live in. The new big worry is that after the most recent ten year census it turns out that the one child policy has resulted in a fertility rate well below the optimal level. The result is that any social welfare system put in place will have to be designed to stand the impending shock that Japan's very developed, efficient and technology intensive society is having difficultly enduring.
All of these pitfalls are set against the backdrop of official paranoia. The CCP is still in power because they actively learned lessons from the fall of the USSR and in lieu of ideology have made staying in power their raison d'etre. Now they're seeing 1989 all over again in the middle east. The image most Americans seem to have of Chinese leaders is of them kicking back in an easy chair, smoking a Cuban cigar and laughing as they surpass America. Far from it! After spending collectively a half year in mainland China MY image of Hu Jintao is one of a pepto bismol guzzling man who lives in a political environment fraught with imminent dangers. Under George Bush the American economy tanked. The Republicans lost power. If the Chinese economy tanks there could very well be a revolution. And if the economy doesn't tank? Well then there's still a whole host of problems which might still be catastrophic even if handled properly.
Here's what Americans need to understand about China that I've learned or have learned to be extremely important factors since being here:
1. China as a whole only started working towards modernization ~15 years ago.
2. Their problems are greater in number and much bigger than ours.
3. The ramifications for them not fixing their problems are more serious and because of this they will not yield to any demands easily.
4. Their economy is still less than 1/3 the size of ours.
5. Growth like they have here requires a standard of living we would not be willing to endure.
6. We are a country of laws and not of men, this is a country of men and not of laws. The institutional stability we enjoy has not yet been engrained in China. The result is that even if we hammer out agreements with China, they might not be able to implement them.
7. China is every bit as inward focused and deaf to other cultures as the most backwater parts of America. You would be amazed at the history they're not aware of.
8. In America the mental image of China often evokes South Korea or Japan. This is completely 100% inaccurate.
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